‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ Opening Weekend Projections Lower Than ‘The Way of Water’

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Most films avoid competing with a James Cameron Avatar movie, and December will be no different when the third film arrives in theaters. However, Cameron recently expressed concern that the series might be losing momentum, and early projections suggest this new trip to Pandora won’t perform as well as 2022’s Avatar: The Way of Water.

After a 13-year wait, fans finally returned to the world of Pandora with Cameron’s 2009 blockbuster, Avatar. Though some studio executives thought frequent releases are key to maintaining fan interest, The Way of Water became another massive success, earning over $2 billion. Now, with a much shorter gap between sequels, many expect even greater box office numbers, but that might not happen.

Sources at Deadline predict Avatar: Fire and Ash will likely earn between $110 and $130 million domestically on its opening weekend. This is a bit lower than the $134.1 million earned by The Way of Water. However, this probably won’t hinder the film’s chances of reaching the $2 billion mark in total earnings. Domestic numbers are only one piece of the puzzle, and previous Avatar films have consistently performed exceptionally well overseas.

With films like Superman and The Fantastic Four receiving criticism for their disappointing $125 million and $117 million opening weekends, Fire and Ash is predicted to open with even lower numbers. However, the Avatar franchise has a history of strong, sustained performance – as demonstrated by The Way of Water – so James Cameron likely isn’t concerned at this point.

‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ Will Decide the Future of the Franchise


20th Century Studios

As with any film series, financial success is crucial for future installments. The first two Avatar movies were massive hits and very profitable. Director James Cameron has already filmed some material for a fourth movie and has plans for two more, but he knows that if the upcoming Avatar 3: Fire and Ash doesn’t perform well, those future films might never be made. He recently discussed this on The Town podcast, stating:

I’m certain this movie will be profitable. The real question is whether it will earn enough to warrant a sequel.

A major issue with films like Fire and Ash is their enormous cost. This new movie is estimated to have a budget of $250 to $300 million, meaning it needs to earn over $1 billion to be considered successful when marketing costs are included. The thought of an Avatar movie not reaching $1 billion in theaters is actually harder to believe than anything that happens on screen.

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2025-11-27 14:50