Movies

Why Superman 2025 Opening Weekend Box Office Predictions Have Dropped Again

BBG News

A recent forecast has revised downwards the estimated box office earnings for the opening weekend of the upcoming Superman film in 2025, directed by James Gunn. The movie hits theaters nationwide today, July 11, aiming to kickstart the DCU with a powerful start. Despite anticipation that it will rule the box office for the following two weeks, expectations have been gradually decreasing as we approach its release date. Intriguingly, the opening weekend projections for The Fantastic Four: First Steps are now slightly higher than Superman’s. Fortunately, the report offers several explanations as to why the new Superman movie might not perform as well as initially predicted.

What are Superman’s opening weekend projections now?

In simple terms, the estimated earnings for Superman’s 2025 debut weekend are expected to range between $125 million and $150 million. However, this projected range represents a slight drop of approximately 10% compared to its minimum and maximum potential earnings.

The data you’re referring to originates from a July 10th report by BoxOfficeTheory, a site that monitors and forecasts the box office earnings of upcoming films. To provide some perspective, around a month earlier on June 6th, they published a report predicting Superman 2025 would earn somewhere between $154 million and $185 million. This prediction was later revised down to $135 million to $175 million in a report dated June 20th. The latest analysis has further reduced these figures.

The website estimates that the upcoming movie, Superman 2025, will gross approximately $135 million over its extended three-day weekend forecast (from Friday, June 11 to Sunday, June 13), but it’s important to note that this figure takes into account predictions from Thursday, June 10 as well, making it a four-day prediction. For precise earnings, the report suggests that the movie will bring in $23.9 million on Thursday (with Amazon Prime Early Access included), followed by $37.2 million on Friday, $39.7 million on Saturday, and $34.6 million on Sunday.

The recent report offers several explanations as to why the box office earnings for Superman 2025 have not surpassed expectations. Despite initial predictions suggesting a grand opening of $154 million or more based on pre-sales data from before tickets went on sale, it appears that these figures alone are not enough to support such a high opening. Furthermore, the pattern of ticket sales for Superman 2025 shows a less pronounced emphasis on Thursday previews compared to other films like Thunderbolts*, Deadpool & Wolverine, and Thor: Love and Thunder.

*Note: The asterisk denotes that Thunderbolts is a fictional film used as an example in this context.

The film up until now has primarily catered to an adult male demographic, but the report intends to factor in its appeal for families and children, particularly those residing outside major cities and coastal regions where DC films traditionally perform well. The dearth of animated blockbusters this summer could contribute positively to the success of Superman 2025, as it deviates from the darker, brooding tones that previous DC films have been characterized by without incorporating much humor. Essentially, the live-action versions of Lilo & Stitch, Elio, and How to Train Your Dragon remake haven’t been as impactful as Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2 were in 2024. Good word-of-mouth, evidenced by high ratings from critics and users on Rotten Tomatoes, will also contribute to the movie’s popularity.

The statement indicates that Superman 2025 has turned into a contentious topic due to James Gunn’s comment that the movie is an immigrant narrative about America. This could potentially affect sales in areas like middle America, which are predominantly conservative, and among fans and parents with such leanings. These regions are crucial for the film as they offer above-average appeal and higher projection targets.

Currently, the forecast for The Fantastic Four: First Steps hasn’t been adjusted since their July 11 report. This upcoming movie appears poised to gain from being the upcoming blockbuster after Superman. Its opening weekend estimates are still between $125 million and $155 million, which is remarkably higher than Superman’s at this stage. As we approach its domestic preview on July 24, the early box office numbers are steadily increasing towards $25 million. Critics will be able to share their reviews starting from July 22.

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2025-07-11 23:17

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