Are famous people more likely to die at 27, or does dying at 27 make them more famous?

Are famous people more likely to die at 27, or does dying at 27 make them more famous?

As someone who has spent countless hours delving into the intricacies of popular culture and its impact on society, I find the concept of the “27 Club” fascinatingly complex. Having grown up with the music of these iconic artists and witnessing the enduring influence they continue to have on contemporary musicians, it’s hard not to be captivated by this seemingly inexplicable phenomenon.


The deaths of many musicians and artists have contributed to the idea that age 27 is particularly dangerous or fatal for such individuals.

Amy Winehouse, the groundbreaking singer-songwriter known for challenging norms, passed away at a young age due to alcohol poisoning in 2011. Similarly, grunge rocker Kurt Cobain ended his life through suicide in 1994 and legendary rock ‘n’ roll artist Janis Joplin lost her battle against a heroin overdose in 1970.

Additionally, they join a notable and unfortunate group – with the latest addition being actor Chance Perdomo, who passed away in a motorcycle accident in March.

For decades, the apparent phenomenon of the so-called 27 Club has captured the public’s morbid fascination. Time and again, however, scientists have crunched the numbers and determined that the 27 Club has more basis in myth than in math.

In a significant investigation published in the BMJ, it was discovered that the risk of death among well-known musicians aged between 20 and 39 could be as much as triple compared to the general population. Interestingly, when examining 522 musical artists, the mortality rate for 27-year-olds (0.57 deaths per 100 years of life) was very close to that of 25-year-olds (0.56 deaths per 100 musician-years), as well as 32-year-olds (0.54 deaths per 100 musician-years).

A study published in the journal ‘Medical Problems of Performing Artists’ looking into the deaths of 13,195 popular musicians across various genres discovered that their lifespan was typically shorter than that of the general population. However, the age of 27 wasn’t notably dangerous according to the researchers; instead, they found that the riskiest years were before musicians reached the age of 25.

Yet the legend of the 27 Club continues to grow. Pages devoted to 27 Club members exist in 51 languages on Wikipedia, and the one in English contains 85 entries.

Currently, scholars are re-examining the relevance of this social institution and what its longevity reveals about our societal dynamics. The outcome of their study suggests that while the 27 Club might not exist in reality, it still holds significant cultural implications.

Zackary Okun Dunivin, who is both a computational expert and a sociologist with a focus on culture, explained that he delved into the data for a particular reason: He felt that the validity of the 27 Club, which some dismiss due to lacking statistical evidence, should not be casually dismissed.

According to Dunivin, a researcher from UC Davis, scientists have historically underappreciated it. He emphasizes that just because something is a myth and not based on facts, it doesn’t make it unimportant.

As a movie enthusiast, I’d put it this way: “Contrarily, I believe myths and tales are our shared means of interpreting reality. They help us grasp the essence of the world around us, stirring feelings of awe, enigma, sorrow, exhilaration, and fostering the desire to share these emotions with others.

Researchers Dunivin and Patrick Kaminski, based at the University of Stuttgart in Germany, re-evaluated this phenomenon by studying a group of 14,517 deceased pop musicians whose lives are documented on Wikipedia. Compared to hundreds of thousands of other notable individuals with Wikipedia pages, they discovered that this particular group tended to die at younger ages on average.

In their recently published study, Dunivin and Kaminski found, similar to other researchers, that turning 27 does not carry any unusual risks or dangers, as reported in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

But that was just the beginning.

Dunivin aimed to prove that the “27 Club” phenomenon was genuine, as it displayed a significant impact. By focusing on individuals in their study who died between the ages of 25 and 40, he and Kaminski plotted them on a chart based on their notability (determined by Wikipedia page visits) and the age at which they passed away.

In this analysis, the people who died at 27 stood out from their older and younger counterparts.

According to Dunivin, members of the 27 Club who fell into the top 1% of renown were approximately double as famous as they would have been if they had passed away at a different age. Similarly, those in the top 10% of notability saw a 35% increase in their fame by dying at the age of 27.

Essentially, Dunivin stated that “being more well-known increases the impact of the 27 Club phenomenon,” with his preferred member from the 27 Club being the artist Jean-Michel Basquiat.

This phenomenon can be traced back to an unexpected coincidence: a concentration of deaths among 27-year-old musicians happening over the course of two years.

In 1969, Brian Jones, an original member of the Rolling Stones, tragically drowned in his own swimming pool. Subsequently, Jimi Hendrix, a brilliant guitarist, passed away due to barbiturate overdose in 1970. A few weeks later, Janis Joplin succumbed to her fate, and Jim Morrison, the iconic lead singer of the Doors, was discovered lifeless in his bath in 1971.

Dunivin and Kaminski determined the probability of four highly recognized individuals dying within a two-year period, all at the age of 27. Their estimation suggested a likelihood of approximately 1 in 100,000.

The unusual nature of these events significantly boosted the popularity of the Club 27 legend, and subsequent deaths, particularly that of Kurt Cobain, have kept this enigma intriguing, as stated by Dunivin.

He mentioned, “You might come across mentions of the achievements of well-known individuals who were 27 years old more often than those at other ages. This frequent occurrence gives an impression that there are actually more deceased 27-year-olds compared to 26 or 28-year-olds. This misconception perpetuates itself.

In a similar fashion to how walking trails form in a park, once someone starts taking a specific shortcut, more people notice the flattened grass and start using it too. This continuous foot traffic wears down the area even more, making the path more visible and creating a cycle where the trail becomes increasingly defined due to its own popularity.

The Club 27 myth may seem trivial, but in the age of Wikipedia, it is valuable because it can be analyzed with data.

Dunivin stated that an instance like the untimely deaths of four musicians can have far-reaching impacts on culture and history, which is a concept that applies widely. He used the historical example of the assassination of Franz Ferdinand to illustrate this point. If the bullet had missed its mark slightly, the archduke would have lived. This simple alteration could have significantly changed borders, cultures, and economies if World War I hadn’t ensued.

Adrian Barnett, a statistician from Queensland University of Technology in Brisbane, was the lead researcher behind the BMJ study that challenged the belief that age 27 is exceptionally fatal for musicians. He expressed his agreement with the findings.

Barnett, who specializes in minimizing hospital infections, stated that the authors present compelling evidence for the authenticity of the 27 Club. He described it as a “self-sustaining trend.

And it’s not limited to pop culture, he added.

As a keen observer, I find myself drawing parallels to instances where an unusual number of cancer cases surface, often within a specific workplace over a short span. Initially, these cases gain notoriety and raise concern. However, as more employees get tested due to this initial alarm, previously undetected cancers are discovered, causing the cluster to expand. In essence, a series of seemingly random events set off a chain reaction, leading to a self-sustaining cluster of cases. – Barnett’s explanation, paraphrased.

Analyzing how thoughts propagate within a society allows researchers to grasp the factors that bind or fragment groups, as stated by Dunivin. Essentially, these collective thoughts form our culture, which enriches and fulfills our personal lives, according to him.

He expressed his dismay, stating that it might disappoint him greatly if writing this paper led others to cease telling the tale of the 27 Club.

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2024-11-05 14:31

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