NASCAR’s biggest playoff flaw is quickly becoming exposed (again)

NASCAR's biggest playoff flaw is quickly becoming exposed (again)

As a gamer who has spent countless hours playing NASCAR video games over the years, I have witnessed the evolution of the sport firsthand. The recent win by Ricky Stenhouse Jr. at Talladega Superspeedway is a testament to the parity that the Next Gen era has brought to the sport. However, it also raises questions about the current playoff format and its fairness.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr., a racer from JTG Daugherty Racing, secured his first triumph in the NASCAR Cup Series since the 2023 Daytona 500 during Sunday afternoon’s playoff race at Talladega Superspeedway. However, it’s worth noting that he didn’t make the cut for this year’s postseason.

In a surprising twist in the postseason, Stenhouse has become the third distinct driver who hasn’t qualified for the playoffs to secure a victory during the first six races. This makes him the 18th unique victor in the 2024 racing season. Chris Buescher from RFK Racing took the checkered flag at Watkins Glen International, while Ross Chastain from Trackhouse Racing Team claimed victory in the opening race of the round of 12 at Kansas Speedway.

In 2014, a new playoff system, often referred to as the “win-and-you’re-in,” was implemented. This format allows for 16 teams to compete, and any driver who manages to secure a win during the regular season is guaranteed a spot in the playoffs, regardless of their current points standing.

Example: In this year’s regular season races, Harrison Burton from Wood Brothers Racing ended up in 34th position, last among full-time drivers. However, due to his impressive victory at Daytona International Speedway, he managed to secure a spot in the playoffs.

But it’s not really a “win and in” format.

As a devoted fan, I’d put it this way: If no driver clinches the regular season title with a race victory, that top spot is guaranteed. Then, the next 15 drivers who have the most wins get in the playoffs. In case there are more than 16 eligible drivers or winners, the one-win drivers will be sorted based on points to determine who gets the remaining spots.

For the past 11 seasons using this contemporary setup, no single season has seen more regular-season champions than playoff qualifiers. However, the Next Gen period has shown us that this isn’t an automatic occurrence, and this current postseason has underscored this point.

In the 2021 season, a total of 15 racers secured victories across 26 races. However, Austin Dillon’s triumph at Richmond Raceway was marked with penalties, preventing him from qualifying for the playoffs. Consequently, the playoff spots were distributed among 14 winners, while the remaining two positions went to the drivers who had accumulated the highest number of points.

If it had been Stenhouse instead of Tyler Reddick who triumphed at Talladega during the regular season, would he still have qualified for the playoffs despite the change in winner?

If Chastain had triumphed at Kansas during the regular season instead of Kyle Larson from Hendrick Motorsports, who was still eligible for the playoffs, what would the playoff standings have looked like?

Wondering about a possible scenario: If Buescher’s road course victory at Watkins Glen International had occurred at Circuit of the Americas or Sonoma Raceway instead, his teammates William Byron and Larson, who won those races respectively, would still have qualified for the playoffs as they were likely to do so regardless.

And what if Dillon’s win at Richmond had counted toward his playoff eligibility?

The possibility of having more than 16 regular season winners is nowhere near as far-fetched as it once seemed.

In the initial two out of three consecutive seasons of the Next Gen vehicle, a minimum of 18 distinct drivers have emerged victorious so far. The 2022 season alone witnessed 19 different winners across its first 29 races. Interestingly, all three races in the opening playoff round saw new winners, and as we move into this current year, the total count has risen to 18 wins in 31 events.

In the span of three years, over half of the professional racers have managed to secure a win long before the season’s end on more than 17 occasions out of 26 races. Does this seem as “unusual” or “improbable” as it appears?

Over time, there have been numerous suggestions to alter the playoff system, one of which involves implementing a stipulation where winners must hold a particular points standing for their victories to contribute towards playoff qualification. The abolition of the previous top 30 rule has raised eyebrows, particularly when Burton secured his win at Daytona in August.

Could we potentially see a full season with 18 or 19 champions, along with several drivers who might miss the playoffs despite finishing high in the overall standings, before any changes are implemented?

In 2022, Martin Truex Jr., who previously placed fourth, didn’t make it to the playoffs despite qualifying for them. If Kurt Busch hadn’t been injured and withdrawn from the playoffs, Ryan Blaney would have also missed out on a spot. At what stage might NASCAR begin to wonder?

It’s clear as day that the present system doesn’t have a bias. It’s a level playing field for all, where playoff positions and victories are achieved, not bestowed. Securing race wins is no walk in the park for anyone.

However, if NASCAR encounters a scenario where the regular season yields an unusually high number of diverse winners – a development that appears increasingly likely due to the enhanced parity brought about by the Next Gen car era – then it might be that necessary adjustments aren’t as distant as previously thought.

2024-10-08 16:02