Academy Awards 2026: The surprising stars set to sweep the Oscars… and the A-lister set for a humiliating loss

As a lifestyle expert, I’m telling you, the Oscars are almost here, and this year’s show is shaping up to be unlike any we’ve seen in a long time! It’s going to be a really different ceremony, and I’m personally excited to see how it all unfolds.

For the first time in decades, a horror film is on track to dominate the Oscars.

The vampire musical Sinners has broken a record, receiving 16 Academy Award nominations – more than any other horror film, including iconic movies like The Exorcist, Silence of the Lambs, and The Sixth Sense.

Its main competitor is One Battle After Another, a highly popular game that’s proving to be a strong challenge to Sinners in several important areas.

Normally, a film like ‘One Battle After Another’ – with its important social message and starring famous actors such as Leonardo DiCaprio and Sean Penn – would be a strong Oscar favorite. However, with the rising popularity of ‘Sinners,’ it’s now less clear which movie will win.

Josh Safdie’s film, Marty Supreme, was once a strong awards contender, but it’s lost momentum and might not win any awards now.

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Best Picture

Best Picture is the most tightly contested category this year.

Everyone initially expected Paul Thomas Anderson’s film, One Battle After Another, to win the award, but Ryan Coogler’s Sinners has become a strong contender recently.

When a musical film wins the award for best cast performance (previously called the SAG Award), its chances of winning Best Picture at the Oscars greatly improve.

USA Today, Esquire, Variety, and Awards Daily have all picked Sinners to take Best Picture.

As of Friday the 13th, both Gold Derby, a site that tracks awards, and Kalshi, a prediction market, still show ‘One Battle After Another’ as the frontrunner.

Several prominent publications, including The Hollywood Reporter, The New Yorker, and the Associated Press, are predicting that the Leonardo DiCaprio thriller will win.

The films that win in the screenplay categories often go on to win Best Picture. This year, both nominated films are expected to win: One Battle After Another is favored to win Best Adapted Screenplay, and Sinners is predicted to win Best Original Screenplay.

Nominees: Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Train Dreams

Favorite: Sinners / One Battle After Another (Tie)

Our prediction: Sinners

Best Director

Much like Best Picture, the Best Director category is basically between Anderson and Coogler again.

As a close follower of this race, it’s become pretty clear to me that Anderson is almost guaranteed to win. None of the major publications or betting platforms, like Kalshi, are predicting a Coogler victory, making Anderson the overwhelming favorite.

If Ryan Coogler wins, he would be the first Black director to ever win an Oscar, considering the awards have been presented for nearly a century. Some in the film industry believe the Academy might choose to honor him this year as a way to highlight diversity and inclusion.

Josh Safdie, the director of Marty Supreme, is currently considered the least likely to win in his category.

Nominees: Chloe Zhao – Hamnet

Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme

Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another

Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value

Ryan Coogler – Sinners

Favorite: Paul Thomas Anderson

Our prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson

Best Actor

Early in the awards season, Timothée Chalamet seemed like the clear frontrunner to win Best Actor for his role in Marty Supreme. However, Michael B. Jordan, thanks to his performance in Sinners, has now become the favorite to win the award.

Most experts and prediction markets now believe Jordan is the frontrunner to win, according to sources like USA Today, The Hollywood Reporter, Variety, Gold Derby, Awards Daily, and Kalshi.

Even though Timothée Chalamet has been working hard to promote his performance and win a Best Actor Oscar—after being nominated twice before—his chances of winning are decreasing.

The first major indication of problems came at last month’s BAFTAs, when Marty Supreme didn’t win any of the 11 awards it was up for – matching the record for the most losses in one night.

The situation became more difficult when Marty Supreme didn’t win any of the awards it was nominated for at the Actor Awards, including Timothée Chalamet losing the Best Actor prize to Michael B. Jordan.

Timothée Chalamet sparked some controversy during interviews for his film Wonka, when he suggested that ballet and opera are no longer popular art forms, saying ‘no one cares’ about them.

Nominees: Timothee Chalamet – Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon

Michael B. Jordan – Sinners

Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent

Favorite: Michael B. Jordan

Our prediction: Michael B. Jordan

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Best Actress

While most awards seem certain to go to films featuring criminals or intense conflicts, Best Actress is shaping up to be different. Jessie Buckley is widely expected to win for her performance in Hamnet.

Everyone overwhelmingly prefers her for the role, with Rose Byrne trailing far behind as a potential choice for ‘If I Had Legs I’d Kick You’.

Honestly, I can’t even imagine anyone beating Buckley for the trophy, but… okay, there’s this one tiny thing I’m worried about. If she messes up her performance as The Bride – and please, please don’t let that happen – that’s the only way I see her losing. It’s just… unthinkable otherwise!

Okay, I honestly don’t get the hate! This movie, with Christian Bale in it – Christian Bale! – and directed by Maggie Gyllenhaal, is getting absolutely destroyed by critics, and it’s flopped big time in theaters. I think it’s brilliant, but apparently, nobody else does. It’s just…unfair!

There’s now speculation that Buckley could suffer the same fate as Eddie Murphy.

Eddie Murphy was widely expected to win Best Actor at the 79th Academy Awards for his performance in Dreamgirls. However, he lost after his recent comedy film, Norbit, received overwhelmingly negative reviews just before the Oscars ceremony.

Although it’s improbable, the bad publicity surrounding “The Bride” might lead a few voters to support Byrne right before the election, even if Buckley likely won’t be affected.

Nominees: Jessie Buckley – Hamnet

Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue

Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value

Emma Stone – Bugonia

Favorite: Jessie Buckley

Our prediction: Jessie Buckley

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Best Supporting Actor

Most experts predict Sean Penn will win in this category, which is largely expected to go to his performance in One Battle After Another.

If he wins, this would be his third Oscar. He previously won Best Actor in 2004 for his role in Mystic River and again in 2009 for Milk.

Most predictions from sources like Kalshi, USA Today, The Hollywood Reporter, and Gold Derby favor Penn to win. However, Variety is going against the grain, forecasting a win for Delroy Lindo of ‘Sinners’.

Nominees: Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein

Delroy Lindo – Sinners

Sean Penn – One Battle After Another

Stellan Skarsgard – Sentimental Value

Favorite: Sean Penn

Our prediction: Sean Penn

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Best Supporting Actress

This year’s Best Supporting Actress award is a bit of a surprise, as Amy Madigan is the unexpected frontrunner. She’s receiving a lot of praise for her stunning performance as Aunt Gladys in the film Weapons.

While Madigan was recognized for her performance in the 1985 film Twice in a Lifetime – earning a Best Supporting Actress nomination – she hasn’t received significant awards attention since then.

Plus, “Weapons” isn’t the kind of movie usually recognized by the Oscars. It’s a horror film, and that genre is often ignored by the Academy.

Despite the graphic horror film ‘Blood-Soaked Sinners’ receiving a lot of awards attention lately, the Oscars might finally start recognizing the horror genre.

Madigan’s main competitor is Teyana Taylor from One Battle After Another, who has already received a Golden Globe award for Best Supporting Actress.

Because Madigan has already won awards like the Actor Awards, Critic’s Choice Awards, and AACTA and ASTRA Awards, she’s likely to have a better chance of winning than Taylor.

Nominees: Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan – Weapons

Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners

Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another

Favorite: Amy Madigan

Our prediction: Amy Madigan

2026-03-13 23:06

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