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3 keys to victory for Marcin Tybura vs. Sergey Spivak at UFC Vegas 95

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3 keys to victory for Marcin Tybura vs. Sergey Spivak at UFC Vegas 95

As a seasoned UFC fan with over two decades of watching these battles unfold, I’ve seen my fair share of heavyweight rematches, but none quite like Marcin Tybura vs. Sergey Spivak at UFC Vegas 95. This is a fascinating clash of styles, and it feels like déjà vu all over again.

UFC Vegas 95 takes place on August 10 with Marcin Tybura vs. Sergey Spivak as the main event. These two heavyweight fighters are ranked No. 8 and No. 9 respectively. Their previous encounter was at UFC Norfolk in February 2020, where Tybura emerged victorious via unanimous decision. This initial fight was part of the prelims but due to their impressive growth in skill and popularity, it’s been moved to the main event this time around. With both fighters having significantly improved since their first meeting, the rematch promises to be highly competitive. Below, we’ll delve into each fighter’s strategy for claiming victory.

Marcin Tybura’s keys to victory

1. Avoid the Clinch

For Tybura, he needs to avoid the clinch as his first victory key. Spivak’s biggest skill improvement has been his powerful clinch takedowns where he can ragdoll and takedown any heavyweight, regardless of size, if he can clinch with them. When Spivak gets his opponents down to the ground, he possesses vicious, ground striking, and a skilled, submission threat. Tybura can avoid the clinch by just using lots of movement and punching long from a distance. When Spivak cannot get clinch takedowns, he can panic and crumble under the lights. He does not possess strong single or double-legged takedowns.

2. Strike

A crucial factor for victory could lie in Tybura dominating the stand-up battles. In their previous encounter, it was Spivak who had an edge in striking, yet Tybura’s exceptional wrestling skills earned him every round. Today, Spivak seems more at ease with wrestling in the clinch, preferring to avoid strikers. Interestingly, Tybura has shown improved striking abilities compared to Spivak recently. The key to keeping Spivak away from clinches is Tybura’s enhanced striking skillset.

3. Offensively wrestle

To secure victory in the rematch, Tybura should replicate his offensive wrestling strategy from their initial fight. Despite having a lower takedown success rate (33%) compared to Spivak’s (64%), Tybura excels in executing various types of takedowns, such as single and double-legged ones. In their previous encounter, Tybura managed to take down Spivak on two occasions out of eight attempts, and maintained excellent control during each instance. It remains to be seen if Spivak has improved his takedown defense since then. Interestingly, only one fighter has attempted offensive wrestling against Spivak since their first meeting – Aleksei Oleinik in June 2021 – who succeeded in taking down Spivak once out of two attempts.

Sergey Spivak’s keys to victory

1. Clinch

In Spivak’s case, the clinch is his primary tool for success in wrestling, a technique that has proven effective in helping him secure victories. Neither Tai Tuivasa nor Derrick Lewis had ever been dominated and submitted as they were when they faced Spivak in the Octagon. Compared to Ciryl Gane, who handily defeated Spivak previously, Tybura lacks the same swift footwork. However, Spivak can create opportunities for clinch situations by employing tactics such as rushing attacks or incorporating more striking from their previous encounter. He must avoid the timid approach he took during their last matchup. This rematch is a chance to avenge a significant career setback, and Spivak needs to exhibit aggression in pursuit of victory. In other words, he must be determined to secure the clinch by any means possible.

2. Defend against Tybura’s takedowns

In order for Spivak to secure a victory against Tybura, he must prioritize staying upright and quickly regaining his footing if he is taken down. His top strategy lies in maintaining his defensive wrestling skills at an optimal level. On the ground, it’s crucial that his submission defense and defense against ground strikes are equally strong to prevent Tybura from securing a finish or winning via points as in their previous encounter. If Spivak can successfully defend takedowns or get back up when on the ground, it will create opportunities for clinch situations where he can assert his own wrestling style. Over the past three years, no one has attempted to offensively wrestle Spivak, indicating whether there have been any advancements in his defensive wrestling abilities during that time will be revealed in this rematch.

3. Strike

If it’s not common for him to do so, Spivak might strategically opt to focus on his enhanced striking abilities, which have shown promise since his loss to Gane in September 2023. In his initial bout with Tybura, he had some success with standing combat. Had he successfully defended all takedowns, he might have won the first fight. Some fighters tend to become overly reliant on wrestling, eager to avoid striking exchanges. If Spivak can excel in both striking and wrestling, that would be considered a dominant performance, which judges often appreciate. Spivak doesn’t necessarily need to knock out Tybura; instead, he just needs to win on points until he can assert his dominance, including utilizing clinch wrestling to secure a finish. The fight could potentially stretch into championship rounds, a situation Spivak has not experienced in his career before.

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2024-08-09 05:13

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