1 best and worst bet at UFC Vegas 94

As a seasoned MMA bettor with over a decade of experience, I have seen my fair share of ups and downs in the world of UFC betting. With the UFC returning to the Apex on July 20 for UFC Vegas 94, I’m here to give you my take on the best and worst bets on the card based on my personal life experience and analysis of each fighter’s past performances.

At the UFC APEX on July 20, the UFC returns with an intriguing women’s main event: No. 3 ranked strawweight Amanda Lemos faces off against No. 5 ranked Virna Jandiroba. With many fights featuring closely matched odds, spectators stand a excellent chance to earn significant profits. Here is one potential winning and losing wager for UFC Vegas 94.

Best: Amanda Lemos to win in Round 4,5, or by decision +320

When it comes to identifying the most promising bet on a fight night, it isn’t necessarily the fighter with the highest odds of winning that will come out on top. You can discover potential winners by exploring method of victory wagers or predicting the exact round for one contender’s triumph. For instance, Lemos, who boasts an impressive finishing record in UFC competition, has lately demonstrated resilience and made it to the final bell in her last two bouts against Weili Zhang and Mackenzie Dern.

In Lemos’s past battles, it is observable that her matches against elite opponents tend to span longer durations. Prior to Lemos entering the Octagon on July 20, she will have engaged in five such encounters, with three resulting in full distance bouts and another ending in the third round of a three-round contest.

Approximately three out of every ten victories for Lemos in the UFC have ended in a judge’s decision. In contrast, all of Jandiroba’s defeats have been decided by the judges as well. Keep in mind that both these female fighters have limited experience in lengthy five-round bouts, so it’s reasonable to expect they will manage their energy prudently during the match.

In the UFC’s past, there have been 27 five-round strawweight bouts for women. Out of these fights, approximately 63% ended with a judge’s decision instead of a knockout or submission. With these statistics in mind, we can hope for a favorable decision in this particular bout.

According to FanDuel, if you place a bet on Lemos with odds of +320, the probability of that bet paying out is approximately 23.81%. This risk appears justifiable considering the supporting statistics. I recommend betting on Lemos to win either in rounds 4, 5, or via decision.

Worst: Lucie Pudilova moneyline -114

Lucie Pudilova’s luck seems to be against her in her matchup with Luana Carolina at UFC Vegas 94. In her UFC tenure, Pudilova has fought a total of 10 times and secured three victories but suffered seven defeats. In contrast, Carolina has had five wins and three losses in the UFC, currently riding a two-win streak within the Octagon.

I’ve been closely following Pudilova’s MMA journey, and I must admit, she’s been going through some tough times in the Octagon lately. Similar to her experience, Carolina has been facing formidable opponents. Recently, Pudilova lost back-to-back fights against Ailin Perez and Joselyne Edwards.

“Pudilova has the ability to win against Carolina, but given that she is considered the favorite by the odds, this fight doesn’t present good value for betting.”

A UFC fighter with a record of 3-7 and currently on her second tenure in the organization isn’t looking promising to be considered the front-runner for any upcoming bouts. The possibility of losing three consecutive fights looms large, which could lead to yet another potential threat to her career within the UFC. Therefore, it can be argued that Pudilova is the favorite fighter in this match due to her uncertain future in the organization.

In simpler terms, investing $100 per fight in UFC’s Carolina for eight fights would result in a profit of $545. In contrast, investing the same amount for each of Pudilova’s ten UFC fights would lead to a loss of $482. This equates to a 68.13% return on investment for Carolina and a -48.27% return for Pudilova. Translating this into dollars, your initial $800 investment in Carolina would have grown to $1,345, whereas your $1,000 investment in Pudilova would have yielded only $518.

As a passionate fan of MMA, I strongly advise against making what could be the night’s riskiest bet. It’s essential to keep my feelings in check and focus on the facts before placing any wagers. While it’s natural to have favorite fighters, it’s crucial not to let personal biases cloud my judgment. Instead, I must consider all relevant factors and assess each athlete’s strengths and weaknesses objectively. Only then can I make an informed decision and potentially increase my chances of winning.

At UFC Vegas 94 on July 20, most fights feature closely matched odds. However, it would be unwise to wager on Pudilova against Carolina, as the latter is more likely to yield a profit in this specific matchup. A smarter betting choice would be to explore other opportunities offering better potential returns.

I’ve been there myself, the thrill of placing a bet and potentially winning big. But let me tell you from my personal experience, it’s essential to always bet responsibly and only wager what you can afford to lose. The allure of the potential win can sometimes cloud our judgment, leading us to bet more than we should. I’ve learned this lesson the hard way, and I don’t want anyone else to make the same mistake. So, take it from someone who’s been there – bet wisely and within your means.

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2024-07-20 02:43