1 best and worst bet at UFC 306

As a seasoned MMA enthusiast with over two decades of watching fights under my belt (and I don’t mean that literally), I can confidently say that UFC 306 is shaping up to be an electrifying event, especially the main event between Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili. While the spectacle of the Sphere in Las Vegas might steal some of the spotlight, it’s the fights themselves that have me on the edge of my seat.

At the iconic Sphere in Las Vegas, UFC 306 is set to unfold, generating an immense amount of excitement. Leading the charge is Sean O’Malley who will be defending his bantamweight title against Merab Dvalishvili. Despite the focus on the visual spectacle within the Sphere, this event boasts numerous captivating fights, including two championship matches, that could yield profitable wagers. Here are some top and not-so-top bets for UFC 306.

UFC 306 best bet: Sean O’Malley by knockout +170

To some people’s astonishment, O’Malley steps into his second bantamweight title defense as the preferred bet over Dvalishvili. Although O’Malley is widely considered to have the best striking skills in the 135-pound division, Dvalishvili appears to be a challenging opponent for the current champion, who has not encountered anyone quite like him thus far.

At UFC 306, O’Malley is considered the favorite despite having limited experience against opponents with Dvalishvili’s relentless pace and pressure. The key reason for this is O’Malley’s mastery over distance control and precise striking, which will likely outweigh Dvalishvili’s exceptional cardio, believed to be among the best in the UFC today and arguably one of the best ever seen in the Octagon. However, the current bantamweight champion at UFC 306 is well-equipped to handle this aspect of the fight.

Standing taller with a longer reach, O’Malley at 5’11” versus his opponent’s 5’6″, O’Malley will employ his exceptional footwork to maintain distance and accurately land blows from the opening bell to the final round. The possibility of a knockout win is high given Dvalishvili’s past struggles against less formidable strikers than O’Malley, as illustrated in his fights against Henry Cejudo and Marlon Moraes where he almost went down early on.

With Dvalishvili’s exceptional grappling abilities, it could prove challenging for O’Malley to secure a submission. If the fight lasts the full 25 minutes, it seems plausible and even probable that Dvalishvili will emerge as the winner. However, Dvalishvili might overplay his hand by being too aggressive in pursuit of takedowns, making him vulnerable to O’Malley’s counterattacks.

At UFC 306, O’Malley is expected to frequently and early land powerful blows against Dvalishvili, potentially resulting in a knockout win, making him the top pick for victory.

UFC 306 worst bet: Alexa Grasso -140

At UFC 306, Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko may aim to settle their trilogy. Grasso first claimed the flyweight title through an unexpected submission win over Shevchenko at UFC 285. However, since that historic triumph, Grasso has only fought once, with that bout being a rematch against Shevchenko, which took place almost exactly one year ago.

Even though Shevchenko has been less active since March 2023, it’s important to note that she boasts a significantly greater amount of experience, not only within the UFC and against top-tier opponents, but specifically in five-round title fights. This doesn’t imply that Grasso will encounter problems lasting the full 25 minutes if required, but Shevchenko has participated in 13 five-round bouts in the UFC, whereas Grasso has only fought three such matches.

What also makes this trilogy matchup interesting is in their most recent fight from September 2023, Grasso and Shevchenko fought to a controversial split draw where many believe Shevchenko should have emerged as the champion once again. The split draw was determined by a 10-8 round-five scorecard in favor of Grasso which should have been ruled a 10-9 round for Grasso according to most (if not everyone) who watched the fight. The extra point deducted from Shevchenko’s fight total resulted in a 47-47 final scoring on one card, directly leading to a draw.

Grasso demonstrates in her fights against Shevchenko that she can keep up with her opponent across all MMA aspects. Yet, Shevchenko’s career showcases her as one of the greatest mixed martial artists ever, and except for a slip-up at UFC 285, she continues to excel in one of the most impressive careers in UFC history.

After suffering a defeat at UFC 306, Shevchenko probably needs to secure multiple victories to schedule their fourth encounter with Grasso. Additionally, she might be determined to deliver an emphatic performance inside the Octagon and ensure that any potential judge’s decisions are not called into question. With this heightened motivation, Shevchenko is expected to reclaim her flyweight title with a win at UFC 306, making Grasso a risky choice for bettors.

All odds are according by FanDuel. Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

2024-09-12 22:13